Publications: Gavekal Portfolio Solutions
The fragility theory might well be the first financial theory providing a rational explanation for critical risks, behavioral irrationality, and market ruptures. In this letter we analyse why “criticality” emerges from fragility, and how to measure it.
The Missing Variable
The previous publication dealt with providing a formal measure of fragility, shown to be the slope of a return to variance graph. In this letter we analyse why this property is a necessary addition to modern portfolio theories (MPTs).
MPTs focus on correlation across assets and on Value-at-Risk. These provide insightful information in calm market phases, but often implode in tails, when they are most needed. The fragility theory introduces a new variable−the fragile or antifragile nature of investment assets−to help capture hidden risks. The missing variable from MPTs is linked to most of the “unexplained” market behaviors described in this publication.
The Formal Measure of Fragility
Our last publication on “Antifragility” proposed a method to verify the fragile or antifragile nature of financial assets. This week’s publication goes one step further and challenges Professor Taleb’s description of fragility. The suggested transgression opens doors for a formal and quantitative measure of fragility, with very high statistical significance, as opposed to a simple verification of the fragile or antifragile nature of any asset; A necessary step to introduce fragility as a new variable in portfolio construction processes.
A Method To Prove Fragility
Professor Taleb’s concept of antifragility was introduced in part I to highlight its potential innovative applications in finance, in terms of portfolio construction as well as single asset analysis.
Stock analysts for instance, scrutinise companies' performance, strategies, managerial abilities etc. to make conclusions on their expected earnings and risks. They then compare their views to the market's implied assumptions. But what about fragility and antifragility? How can one measure what the market thinks?
Part II proposes a method to prove fragility or antifragility, from the market's perspective. It shows as an example that the S&P 500 index is fragile, and explains why the 20% level on the VIX signals potential major market instabilities.
What Antifragility Means
‘Antifragility Revisited’ is a series of publications on the financial, physical, and socio-political concept of antifragility, invented and promoted by Professor Nicolas Nassim Taleb.
Part I introduces the concept and its potentially revolutionary applications in finance. These include the identification of fragile and antifragile assets, the classification of companies by level of market fragility, the measure of critical volatilities and the construction of investment portfolios targeting long-term robustness.
A Simple Rule - PART III - Risk Remuneration
In this publication, we analyse the competition between major economic zones on risk remuneration. Risk remuneration is the excess return of risk assets above cash rates. Similarly to cash remuneration, presented in Part II, flexible investors can generate significant alpha by dynamically allocating risks to the leading zones.
Part III shows evidence of risk allocation opportunities on equity indices, thereby confirming the arbitrage principle. It temporarily closes a first series of three letters on the global competition across zones to attract world savings, and the benefit that a global and flexible investor can take from it.
A Simple Rule - PART II - Cash Remuneration
Monetary zones compete to attract and safeguard excess savings denominated in their own currency. From an investor’s standpoint, the attractiveness of a currency resides in the total remuneration proposed by its monetary zone, i.e. the interest payments on cash deposits and the appreciation or depreciation of the currency vis-à-vis other competitors.
We analyse below this competition over time and show that currency remunerations, or ranking across zones, reveal the ‘Best of Breed’. A simple rule to allocate cash, based on trusting currency leaders over currency losers, generates significant alpha over time.
A Simple Rule - PART I - Arbitrage Principle
There exists a theoretical trade-off between two types of remuneration: cash and risk. An economic and monetary zone cannot simultaneously favour both ‘the rentier’ and ‘the entrepreneur’. However, we believe that a flexible investor can in fact benefit from such a situation. By investing their cash into the best cash-remunerating zone and their risk into the best risk-remunerating zone, the investor can do what has rarely been done before; reap the benefits of both.
The presentation of our model is split into three parts: (I) Arbitrage Principle, (II) Cash Remuneration, (III) Risk Remuneration. Through our new method of analysing global investment portfolios, our model devises a simple rule that leads to the generation of significant long-term alpha
Publications: Quant Corner Notes